National Early Warning Score Accurately Discriminates the Risk of Serious Adverse Events in Patients With Liver Disease.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The National Early Warning Score (NEWS) is used to identify deteriorating adult hospital inpatients. However, it includes physiological parameters frequently altered in patients with cirrhosis. We aimed to assess the performance of the NEWS in acute and chronic liver diseases. METHODS: We collected vital signs, recorded in real time, from completed consecutive admissions of patients 16 years or older to a large acute-care hospital in Southern England, from January 1, 2010, through October 31, 2014. Using International Classification of Diseases, 10th revision, codes, we categorized patients as having primary liver disease, secondary liver disease, or none. For patients with liver disease, 2 analysis groups were developed: the first was based on clinical group (such as acute or chronic, alcohol-induced, or associated with portal hypertension), and the second was based on a summary of liver-related, hospital-level mortality indicator diagnoses. For each, we compared the abilities of the NEWS and 34 other early warning scores to discriminate 24-hour mortality, cardiac arrest, or unanticipated admission to the intensive care unit using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve and early warning score efficiency curve analyses. RESULTS: The NEWS identified patients with primary, nonprimary, and no diagnoses of liver disease with AUROC values of 0.873 (95% CI, 0.860-0.886), 0.898 (95% CI, 0.891-0.905), and 0.879 (95% CI, 0.877-0.881), respectively. High AUROC values were also obtained for all clinical subgroups; the NEWS identified patients with alcohol-related liver disease with an AUROC value of 0.927 (95% CI, 0.912-0.941). The NEWS identified patients with liver diseases with higher AUROC values than other early warning scoring systems. CONCLUSIONS: The NEWS accurately discriminates patients at risk of death, admission to the intensive care unit, or cardiac arrest within a 24-hour period for a range of liver-related diagnoses. Its widespread use provides a ready-made, easy-to-use option for identifying patients with liver disease who require early assessment and intervention, without the need to modify parameters, weightings, or escalation criteria

Adapting regression equations to minimize the mean squared error of predictions made using covariate data from a GIS

Regression equations between a response variable and candidate explanatory variables are often estimated using a training set of data from closely observed locations but are then applied using covariate data held in a GIS to predict the response variable at locations throughout a region. When the regression assumptions hold and the GIS data are free from error, this procedure gives unbiased estimates of the response variable and minimizes the prediction mean squared error. However, when the explanatory variables in the GIS are recorded with substantially greater errors than were present in the training set, this procedure does not minimize the prediction mean squared error. A theoretical argument leads to the proposal of an adaptation for regression equations to minimize the prediction mean squared error. The effectiveness of this adaptation is demonstrated by a simulation study and by its application to an equation for tree growth rate

Heavy metal transport and storage in an upland catchment A case study from the River West Allen, Northumberland

SIGLEAvailable from British Library Document Supply Centre- DSC:8239.4235(UNDOG-SP--41) / BLDSC - British Library Document Supply CentreGBUnited Kingdo

An atlas of the seaweeds of Northumberland and Durham

SIGLEAvailable from British Library Document Supply Centre- DSC:8378.81(NBRC-SP--3) / BLDSC - British Library Document Supply CentreGBUnited Kingdo

Attribution of global foodborne disease to specific foods: findings from a World Health Organization structured expert elicitation

BACKGROUND: Recently the World Health Organization, Foodborne Disease Burden Epidemiology Reference Group (FERG) estimated that 31 foodborne diseases (FBDs) resulted in over 600 million illnesses and 420,000 deaths worldwide in 2010. Knowing the relative role importance of different foods as exposure routes for key hazards is critical to preventing illness. This study reports the findings of a structured expert elicitation providing globally comparable food source attribution estimates for 11 major FBDs in each of 14 world subregions. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used Cooke's Classical Model to elicit and aggregate judgments of 73 international experts. Judgments were elicited from each expert individually and aggregated using both equal and performance weights. Performance weighted results are reported as they increased the informativeness of estimates, while retaining accuracy. We report measures of central tendency and uncertainty bounds on food source attribution estimate. For some pathogens we see relatively consistent food source attribution estimates across subregions of the world; for others there is substantial regional variation. For example, for non-typhoidal salmonellosis, pork was of minor importance compared to eggs and poultry meat in the American and African subregions, whereas in the European and Western Pacific subregions the importance of these three food sources were quite similar. Our regional results broadly agree with estimates from earlier European and North American food source attribution research. As in prior food source attribution research, we find relatively wide uncertainty bounds around our median estimates. CONCLUSIONS: We present the first worldwide estimates of the proportion of specific foodborne diseases attributable to specific food exposure routes. While we find substantial uncertainty around central tendency estimates, we believe these estimates provide the best currently available basis on which to link FBDs and specific foods in many parts of the world, providing guidance for policy actions to control FBDs

Attribution of global foodborne disease to specific foods: Findings from a World Health Organization structured expert elicitation

Background Recently the World Health Organization, Foodborne Disease Burden Epidemiology Reference Group (FERG) estimated that 31 foodborne diseases (FBDs) resulted in over 600 million illnesses and 420,000 deaths worldwide in 2010. Knowing the relative role importance of different foods as exposure routes for key hazards is critical to preventing illness. This study reports the findings of a structured expert elicitation providing globally comparable food source attribution estimates for 11 major FBDs in each of 14 world subregions. Methods and findings We used Cooke’s Classical Model to elicit and aggregate judgments of 73 international experts. Judgments were elicited from each expert individually and aggregated using both equal and performance weights. Performance weighted results are reported as they increased the informativeness of estimates, while retaining accuracy. We report measures of central tendency and uncertainty bounds on food source attribution estimate. For some pathogens we see relatively consistent food source attribution estimates across subregions of the world; for others there is substantial regional variation. For example, for non-typhoidal salmonellosis, pork was of minor importance compared to eggs and poultry meat in the American and African subregions, whereas in the European and Western Pacific subregions the importance of these three food sources were quite similar. Our regional results broadly agree with estimates from earlier European and North American food source attribution research. As in prior food source attribution research, we find relatively wide uncertainty bounds around our median estimates. Conclusions We present the first worldwide estimates of the proportion of specific foodborne diseases attributable to specific food exposure routes. While we find substantial uncertainty around central tendency estimates, we believe these estimates provide the best currently available basis on which to link FBDs and specific foods in many parts of the world, providing guidance for policy actions to control FBDs.Applied Probabilit

Leuven as a centre for Irish religious, academic and political thought

The Irish Franciscan college of St. Anthony at Louvain was granted a bull of foundation by Pope Paul V on 3 April 1607. This small house in what is now Leuven, Belgium, became one of the most intense centres of Irish engagement with Europe. Its history, both that of the friars who inhabited the college itself and that of the soldiers, diplomats and merchants who supported it, is also the story of Ireland’s decisive step into Europe.Cataloguing complete. JG 2015-10-2